Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 0.015389 0.017457 0.019707 0.022337 0.025331 0.028633 0.032554
2025-03-23 0.012382 0.015279 0.018711 0.023082 0.028510 0.035042 0.043518
2025-03-30 0.010141 0.013241 0.017131 0.022379 0.029296 0.038128 0.050306
2025-04-06 0.008717 0.011918 0.016126 0.022079 0.030317 0.041362 0.057375
2025-04-13 0.007455 0.010603 0.014910 0.021256 0.030415 0.043223 0.062616
2025-04-20 0.006912 0.010189 0.014837 0.021946 0.032607 0.048100 0.072513
2025-04-27 0.006420 0.009776 0.014698 0.022484 0.034576 0.052781 0.082537
2025-05-04 0.006034 0.009471 0.014667 0.023148 0.036758 0.057934 0.093748
2025-05-11 0.005503 0.008880 0.014131 0.022954 0.037544 0.060945 0.101796
2025-05-18 0.005089 0.008428 0.013762 0.022973 0.038644 0.064514 0.111054
2025-05-25 0.004655 0.007901 0.013217 0.022635 0.039094 0.067013 0.118685
2025-06-01 0.004393 0.007635 0.013073 0.022952 0.040671 0.071532 0.130252
2025-06-08 0.004045 0.007195 0.012609 0.022688 0.041238 0.074406 0.139272
2025-06-15 0.003882 0.007068 0.012677 0.023380 0.043598 0.080711 0.155335
2025-06-22 0.003526 0.006560 0.012017 0.022672 0.043281 0.082041 0.161991
2025-06-29 0.003265 0.006202 0.011598 0.022368 0.043689 0.084747 0.171575
2025-07-06 0.002961 0.005735 0.010936 0.021534 0.042979 0.085209 0.176649
2025-07-13 0.002874 0.005681 0.011051 0.022233 0.045377 0.092017 0.195507
2025-07-20 0.002775 0.005591 0.011090 0.022778 0.047503 0.098458 0.214231
2025-07-27 0.002696 0.005536 0.011188 0.023451 0.049954 0.105781 0.235612
2025-08-03 0.002532 0.005292 0.010886 0.023254 0.050526 0.109165 0.248549
2025-08-10 0.002402 0.005108 0.010693 0.023273 0.051565 0.113643 0.264420
2025-08-17 0.002249 0.004863 0.010349 0.022931 0.051765 0.116276 0.276243